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Economy Bibliozone

“As long as we place millions of Indians at the canter of our thought process, as long as we think of their welfare, their future, their opportunities for self realization we are on the right track. For India can grow, prosper, flourish only if they grow, prosper, flourish. We cannot grow by any esoteric strategies. Our purchasing power, our economic strength, our marketplace all depends on the prosperity of our people.”

Mukesh Ambani, Business Leader - Mumbai

 

 

In October, Foresight For Development turns the spotlight on foresight and the economy.

Featured in Bibliozone this month is a collection of publications related to the African & Global economy. The selection of documents is partial and based on accessible material. Therefore, we would like to invite everyone to supplement our library with additional materials.

 

From our FFD library:

Here are the publications and podcasts, available in our library:

 

African Economy




McKinsey on Africa: A continent on the move

The next decade will likely mark the first since the industrial revolution when emerging economies add more to global growth than all the developed countries combined. In our view, Africa will be a core part of this economic renaissance.

In this document, McKinsey consultants and outside experts explore the theme of growth in Africa and what its future might hold.

 




The Africa Competitiveness Report 2011

The Report can serve as a useful tool for African decision makers in public and private spheres to measure the business climate potential for fostering sustainable growth and prosperity.

 

 




Finance Forward: Forces shaping the future of inclusive financial services

With Finance Forward, Cenfri takes a wide-angle view of the forces shaping inclusive financial services in Africa.

 




Economic Report on Africa 2011: Governing development in Africa - the role of the state in economic transformation

The Economic Report on Africa (ERA) series is a joint undertaking between the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union Commission. Each year, the Report provides a broad assessment of recent global economic developments, economic and social conditions as well as emerging issues in Africa. It also provides in-depth analysis of selected thematic areas that affect Africa’s progress towards its medium- to long term economic growth and social development objectives.

 

Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies
Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies is the result of a joint project by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and McKinsey & Company's Africa offices to look at the continent's economies. We sought to examine the sources behind Africa's economic growth acceleration since 2000, analyze the prospects for future growth, and identify some of the most compelling business opportunities ahead. We also developed a framework for understanding how growth challenges and opportunities will differ for Africa's 53 individual countries.

 

Africa 2025 - What possible futures for Sub-Saharan Africa?
What possible futures for Sub- Saharan Africa? The study draws up scenarios which allow us to glimpse through the window into the year 2025.

 

Africa in 2020: Three Scenarios for the Future
This paper identifies three scenarios for Africa in 2020: Where Africa takes charge, where it follows, and a ‘patchwork quilt’ where some countries lead and others fall behind.

 

Africa in 2020: Discussion Paper
This paper features a look at the economic management in Africa over the next twenty years.

 

African Futures 2050: The Next Forty Years
In this monograph the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center for International Futures provide an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050.

 

Financing Africa’s Future Growth and Development: Some Innovations
This paper is an attempt to summarise all the issues relating to how African countries can best position themselves to close the resource gap. It refers to the more difficult exercise of enhancing domestic resource mobilization as a “hard option” and the probably less difficult one of attracting external resources as a “soft option.

 

Financing Africa: Through the Crisis and Beyond
The publication takes a fresh look at Africa’s financial systems in the light of major changes that have taken place in the global financial structure in the wake of the 2008 world financial crisis.

 

Fulfilling the promise of sub-Saharan Africa
“Future global economic growth will increasingly come from emerging markets. Following more than 20 years of hard-won political and economic reform, sub-Saharan Africa will be an important part of this story.”

 

Foresight Africa - Continent's Greatest Challenges & Opportunities 2011
In this report, experts from the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings examine some of the key issues that will matter for Africa in 2011 and beyond.

 

Projection of Future Economic and Sociopolitical Trends in South Africa Up To 2025
The report contains two sets of predictions: One set consists of the qualitative evaluation of 56 economic and sociopolitical issues for 2007 and 2010 compared with 2004 by 70 business leaders and economists. The second set consists of predictions of growth for the periods 2005 – 2010 and 2011 – 2025 for seven growth series by economic sector, namely GDP, fixed capital stock, capital productivity, employment, labour productivity, domestic demand and export demand.

 

Republic Of South Africa Results-Based Country Strategy Paper, 2008 - 2012
Included in this document is the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the South African economy.

 

Building long-term scenarios for development: The methodological state of the art with an application to foreign direct investment in Africa
This paper was produced in the context of a research project funded by the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) that seeks to evaluate the applicability of methods of futures analysis in the development policy arena and to identify emerging development cooperation challenges.

 

Articles:

• Africa 2025 - The Lion Chronicles

Africa in 2050: Adopt to global changes quickly or perish

 

Global Economy

Global Development Horizons 2011 - Multipolarity: The New Global Economy
"The world economy is in the midst of a transformative change. One of the most visible outcomes of this transformation is the rise of a number of dynamic emerging-market countries to the helm of the global economy. In anticipation of the shape of the future global economy, this first edition of Global Development Horizons aims to map out the emerging policy agenda and challenges that an increasingly multipolar world economy poses for developing countries."

Global Economic Prospects Report: Maintaining progress amid turmoil
“As they put the financial crisis behind them, developing countries need to focus on tackling country-specific challenges such as achieving balanced growth through structural reforms, coping with inflationary pressures, and dealing with high commodity prices, the World Bank says in its June 2011 edition of Global Economic Prospects.”

Overcoming the Barriers to Long-term thinking in Financial Markets
The report analyses the reasons why short-term thinking is so entrenched and makes recommendations on specific action that companies, asset managers and investor can take now to change this. It involved research into the behaviours, structures and incentives that reinforce short-termism within the economy and the current initiatives in this area.

The Future of the Global Financial System A Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Scenarios
With the onset of the current financial crisis, the world has seen an initial unwinding of global imbalances that were built up over the past decade. As the crisis continues to unfold – after years of expansionary monetary policies, financial deregulation and excessive credit utilization – a fundamental question emerges: How might the governance and structure of the global financial system evolve over both the near-term and long-term? This report explores this question by describing a range of recent macroeconomic shifts in section one, a near-term outlook (up to 2012) for governance and structure in section two and a long-term view (up to 2020) in section three.

Long-term scenarios for the future of the global financial system - Key driving forces compendium
As described in Section 3 of The Future of the Global Financial System: A Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Scenarios, the World Economic Forum’s scenario methodology begins with a series of interviews, workshops and research efforts focused around identifying the “driving forces” that could impact the central question of interest. This document serves as a reference to the definition and core characteristics of selected driving forces, in particular those that were judged to be critical uncertainties (i.e. having high impact on the outcome of the central question whilst also being highly uncertain in terms of the range of possible values the force variable could take).

What are the implications of the global crisis and its aftermath for developing countries, 2010 - 2020?
This paper explores the implications for growth and poverty reduction in developing countries of four futures scenarios to address the following question: “What are the implications of the global financial crisis and its aftermath, regionally and globally, for developing countries, taking a 5–10 year view?

The Geneva Scenarios on Global Economic Governance 2020
“The FES Geneva Scenarios on “Global Economic Governance 2020” offer four different scenarios on how the GEG system could look in the year 2020. Their aim is to sensitize policy-makers to possible consequences of their decisions, whether they be actions or non-actions. They are intentionally exaggerated, but not implausible. The scenarios seek to further provoke the existing debate on the reform of the GEG system by taking a fresh unorthodox look.”

Sustainable Economy in 2040: A Roadmap for Capital Markets
Sustainable Economy in 2040: A Roadmap for Capital Markets is a report by Forum for the Future funded by Aviva Investors. It shows investors how they can help create a resilient, stable and sustainable economy by investing wisely and using their power to shape the development of capital markets.

Acting now for a positive 2018, preparing for radical change the next decade of business and sustainability
In volatile times, it’s hard to predict the future. One thing is clear however – the economic good times of the last decade are gone for the foreseeable future. Forum for the Future and Capgemini have set out to explore what these turbulent times mean for business and sustainability. We have used our understanding of the last decade to create four different scenarios for the next ten years.

Banking and capital markets: Operating in the future
The future started yesterday. With bank revenues increasing again, particularly in investment banking, there is a danger that the lessons learned in the stress environment created by the financial crisis will be forgotten and structural issues within both the industry and individual institutions will be put to one side, only to resurface in the next crisis.

Global Demographic Outlook to 2025: Risks and Opportunities for the World Economy
Lecture by Nicholas Eberstadt for the Economic Conference on Demography, Growth and Wellbeing

The Future of Money
Presentation

 

Audio / Podcasts

Foreseeing the potential rise of Africa's economic lions - Podcast

Future Scenarios: Energy and Economy - Forum Audio - Podcast

Interview with Dr. Jakkie Cilliers about African Futures
Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, Institute for Security Studies (ISS), discusses the challenges facing Africa and the requirements for economic growth in the continent.

African Futures 2050
As new technology, economic growth, changing demographics, and now the uprisings in North Africa continue to reshape the continent, it is important to understand the present in order to forecast the future of Africa. Dr. Jakkie Cilliers will join us for a discussion on African Futures 2050, a study released by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver. Dr. Cilliers, the primary author, will explain how the interaction of demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment, and human development may shape Africa over the next forty years and what this means for policymakers today.

 

Also look at...

Africa's Odious Debts - How Foreign Loans and Capital Flight Bled a Continent
Written by Léonce Ndikumana and James K. Boyce. A vital book for anyone interested in Africa, its future and its relationship with the West.

 

Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication
The Green Economy Report is compiled by UNEP’s Green Economy Initiative in collaboration with economists and experts worldwide. It demonstrates that the greening of economies is not generally a drag on growth but rather a new engine of growth; that it is a net generator of decent jobs, and that it is also a vital strategy for the elimination of persistent poverty. The report also seeks to motivate policy makers to create the enabling conditions for increased investments in a transition to a green economy.

 

Future Economy Scenarios - Case Study
Recent examples of how some companies have been using the Future Economy Scenarios to start thinking past the recession.

 

Futures Discovery
Futures Discovery (FD) was founded in 2006 by Alireza Hejazi, a freelance futurist to assist individuals and organizations in understanding what the future may hold in store and enable them to make better strategic decisions today about their preferred tomorrow.

 

Below are links to two articles to be found on futuresdiscovery.com

“Economy is the method by which we prepare today to afford the improvements of tomorrow.”

Calvin Coolidge - 30th President of the United States (1923–1929)

 

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