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South African scenarios 2024: Politics, violence and growth in the rainbow nation

Author: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Ciara Aucoin
Organisation: Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
Publish Date: June 2016
Country: South Africa
Sector: Political
Method: Scenarios
Type: Other publication
Language: English
Tags: South Africa, Politics, Violence, African National Congress, Governance, Economics

South Africa may experience a political turning point in the aftermath of the December 2017 National Conference of the ruling African National Congress. Building on an associated publication, Economics, governance and instability in South Africa, this paper describes three different futures for the country.

The first scenario is an uninspiring and business-as-usual Bafana Bafana scenario, an alarming downward scenario called Nation Divided, where the ‘traditionalist’ camp within the ruling party holds sway, and a desirable Mandela Magic scenario, where ‘reformists’ triumph and begin to address some of the country’s most pressing challenges. A related policy brief, Rainbow at risk, presents recommendations.
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