Africa-Indian Ocean Regional Traffic Forecasts 2004–2020

The ICAO Africa-Indian Ocean Traffic Forecasting Group (AFI TFG) was set up in 1998 with the objective of developing traffic forecasts and other planning parameters in support of the planning of air navigation services in the AFI region. It has so far held four meetings in 1998, 2001, 2003 and 2006.

This report provides forecasts prepared by the fourth meeting of the AFI TFG held in Dakar, from 20 to 24 February 2006. The forecasts were developed on the basis of major route groups (region-pairs) using econometric modelling. They were then converted into aircraft movements and expanded to the city-pair level. The city-pair forecasts were then redistributed to match the areas of routing (ARs) defined by the Africa/Indian Ocean Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APIRG), which may not necessarily correspond to the region-pairs. The section related to the FIR data analysis in this report was completed by the Secretariat subsequent to the meeting.