This paper identifies three scenarios for Africa in 2020: Where Africa takes charge, where it follows, and a ‘patchwork quilt’ where some countries lead and others fall behind.

There will not be one scenario for Africa in 2020. Rather, the continent’s countries will be an increasingly confused set of extremes. Such a conclusion is hardly surprising. It would be impossible for all African countries, given their difficult material environments and fractured social settings, to be prosperous after only 60 years of independence.

Rather than provide simple ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ road outcomes, the analysis focuses first on ‘drivers’: those forces that will propel change across Africa. The following drivers are identified: economic growth; demography; democracy; the external environment; the non-governmental sector; conflict; and the Diaspora.

Several factors are especially important.

Domestic reforms that decisively disrupt politics as usual will be a critical determinant of whether ‘Africa takes charge’. Another possible determinant of which scenario is taken up is continental leadership. Excellent domestic leadership is, of course, an inescapable requirement for countries to succeed.

However, the ‘Africa takes charge’ scenario demands more: it suggests that there must be a movement across Africa that allows the continent on the domestic, regional, and international levels to move ahead on important matters of reform. The ‘Africa takes charge’ agenda will be more likely if Africa’s big states become exemplars of success. One of the most noticeable aspects of Africa today is that the large countries, with the exception of South Africa, are not leading the continent. Another possible determinant of Africa’s future is how well the continent manages its Diaspora.

Finally, the emergence of a dynamic private sector will be especially important to Africa taking charge. African governments need a continual stream of new ideas and dynamism if they are to drive the reform agenda. Twenty years of experience suggests that government alone cannot provide all of these ideas, much less the energy to drive them. A dynamic private sector is important for economic growth as a source of energy and innovation for many societies, and as an important link to the international economy.