Forecasting Long-term Global Fertilizer Demand

Long term fertilizer requirement forecasts are key to the success of long term plans for global food security and the profitability of the fertilizer industry. The study forecasts fertilizer demand in relation to soil nutrient status in nine regions. Asia is expected to account for about 40% of the global forecast of 187.7 million Mt in 2015 and 223.1 million Mt in 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa, where soil nutrient depletion is prevalent, will remain the region with the lowest consumption, about 1.1% of global consumption. Soil nutrient drawdown in regions with inadequate fertilizer use indicates soil nutrient depletion which will in the long run exacerbate food shortages and undermine biofuels production plans. Food and fertilizer policy, farmer education, research and technology development, and other actions will be required to counter soil nutrient depletion.