The North African region has one of the most rapid population growth rates of the world. Whereas the population has increased by a factor of three since 1950, it is expected to further increase by at least a factor of two, most likely a factor of four, and possibly even a factor of eight, depending on future fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Given the extremely arid climate of this world region, where fresh water availability is already a serious problem, and that current climate models project significant further warming

well above the expected average warming of the world, these population projections imply that there will be serious problems for the future of this region and possibly increased migration pressure into Europe.

This report provides a concise and comprehensive review of available data on past demographic trends in the region and combines this analysis with expert opinion on alternative future demographic trends (as described in Lutz, 1996) to calculate likely ranges of future population growth.