Global Scenarios and Implications for Constructing Future Livestock Scenarios

Table of Contents

1. Overview of Scenarios and Definitions
- what scenario is and is not
- some history
- uses of scenarios
- comments about current uses of scenarios

2. Examples of Recent Major Scenarios Exercises

2.1 Global Environmental Outlook 3 (GEO-3) Scenarios to the year 2032
UN Environment Programme
2.2 Future S&T Management Policy Issues -- 2025 Global Scenarios
Millennium Project, AC/UNU
2.3 The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
Shell International Limited (SIL)
2.4 Global Trends 2015
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2.5 Global Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 - for Sustainable Development
The Millennium Project, AC/UNU
2.6 European Energy Delphi study: EurEnDel - Technology and Social Visions (Scenarios)
for Europe’s Energy Future, Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung,
Berlin, Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Berlin
2.7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports on global change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

3. Implications for the Future Livestock Scenarios

3.1 Trends, broad concepts, and drivers that should be taken into account while developing
specific scenarios for the future of livestock
3.2 Some innovative concepts for livestock futures
3.2.1 Seawater Agriculture for animal feed, biofuels, and land reclamation.
3.2.2 Use of stem cells to produce muscle tissue without the need to produce an
animal
3.2.3 Biomimicry
3.3 Innovative methodologies
3.3.1 “Fill in the blank approach” to address uncertainly
3.3.2 “Fill in the blank approach” to address plausibility
3.3.3 “Roundless Delphi”
3.3.4 State of the Future Index

4. How to make scenarios and futures research in general
effective in decision-making

Appendix

A. Full text of two examples of global scenarios (one exploratory and one normative)
B. How to do scenario construction with variations
C. Annotated scenario bibliography of scenarios with some
relationship to agriculture and livestock or the natural environment