SA2020 Consolidated Document

In the early 1990s, at a time of great uncertainty, a group of 25 committed South Africans representing a wide spectrum of opinions met regularly over several months in a pivotal exercise that helped shape the future of the nation. The product of that process came to be known as the Mont Fleur Scenarios: fascinating and probing stories sketching different possibilities of how South Africa could develop in the next decade, depending on what strategies might be employed by the political leadership of the time. Most of those who participated in the exercise were in positions to be able to influence the thinking of the leadership, and are now themselves high profile leaders in different sectors of South African life, including being Ministers in the Government.The new South African government rejected the “Ostrich scenario” that characterised the status quo and embarked upon a path which it hoped would lead to the “the Flight of the Flamingos” – which was supposed to ensure high economic growth leading to redistribution. Ten years later, while South Africa has achieved some remarkable successes, many political, economic and social challenges remain unresolved and others, such as AIDS, have emerged.

The youth of South Africa, particularly those aged between 25 and 40, have a strong interest in how the nation will develop over the next two decades. It is this group of leaders and potential leaders that will ascend to the helm of different sectors of society in 2020. And they are eager to realise the resolution of the pressing issues challenging South African society.

The SA2020 Scenario planning process brought together a diverse group of 25 young South Africans from different sectors and with a range of experiences, meeting over nine months in seven workshops and numerous meetings. The only thing many had in common was being South African and their age group. They embarked on a journey to discuss, share views, debate, argue and fight about a vision for the future and the possible paths that could lead to this future.

The team benefited greatly from the participation of a group of other young people from other parts of Africa – Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Uganda. These countries achieved their independence earlier than South Africa and the participants therefore brought valuable insights from their experiences.

In the debates and discussions about interpreting where we are now and we want to be in the future, all participants had the opportunity to clearly state their views, and to listen to the views of others. There was not always agreement. There were different opinions on how South Africa could or should evolve, and the scenario process allowed for the exploration of these viewpoints. The stories reflect the consensus and trade-offs, which were necessary to make such a conversation meaningful.

What, then, is the South Africa of 2020 that they would like to inherit, and how do they envisage that this can be brought to fruition? The SA2020 participants debated and engaged with these issues with vigour and enthusiasm. This booklet and the scenarios contained here are the products of these debates.