Technology forecasting of new clean energy: The example of hydrogen energy and fuel cell

Due to energy shortage, global warming and climate change, balanced development of energy security, economic growth, and environmental protection (3Es) has become a major energy policy issue and prompted the development of low-carbon economies. The goals of exploiting new clean energies, improving the efficiency of conventional energy sources, and improving renewable energy technologies have gathered considerable attention of governments worldwide. Among the many clean energies, hydrogen energy plays an important part in new clean energy fields nowadays. However, little has been done in discussing the technology forecasting for the hydrogen energy development. Therefore, this study predicts the technological S-curves for hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies by integrating bibliometric and patent analysis into the logistic growth curve model, which includes generation, storage, proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and direct methanol fuel cell/direct alcohol fuel cell (DMFC/DAFC). Empirical analysis is via an expert survey and co-word analysis using the USPTO database to obtain useful data. The results demonstrate that technologies for generating and storing hydrogen have not yet reached technological maturity, and the fuel cell technology is either in the mature stage or approaching maturity.