The World in 2050 - Implications of global growth for carbon emissions and climate change policy

In March 2006, we published a report highlighting the rapid growth and increasing global significance of what we called 'E7' emerging economies: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. By 2050, we estimated that the E7 economies could be larger than the current G7 by between 25% and 75% depending on the measure used. As they increase in relative size, these emerging economies will increasingly provide the mototr for global growth, but can the world sustain such rapid growth without serious adverse impacts on its climate? In this report, we address this question by extending our long-term economic model to incorporate the effects of world GDP growth on global energy consumption and carbon emissions. We then discuss technological and policy strategies for mitigating global carbon emissions without requiring a serious sacrifice of economic growth.