Chapter 5 - Tomorrow's Tourist: Scenarios & Trends

Once upon a time, overseas holidays were only for the rich and famous. In 1939, it cost US $79,000 in today’s money to fly across the Atlantic on the world’s first scheduled crossing with Trans Atlantic Airways. By 2015, Virgin Galactic will be following flights into outer space for less than US $50,000 (Whitehorn, 2006). In 1950, 25 million tourists took an overseas holiday; by 2005 this had risen to 803 million, representing an annual growth rate of just over 6% (Mintel, 2006a). By 2030, we expect this figure to reach 1.9 billion international arrivals, spending US $2 trillion. By 2030, markets will have shifted eastwards based upon cost, travellers’ desire for new experiences in far-flung destinations and the rising level of disposal incomes in Asia. By 2030, every part of the globe will have been visited by tourists, new destinations will have emerged which had not even been considered in 1950 and pioneer tourists will be taking adventure holidays in outer space as the ultimate luxury experience. Looking into the future, we expect a considerable slowdown in the world tourism growth rates as a result of shrinking and ageing populations; therefore, the average growth rate will be 3.4% by 2030. By 2030, more than US $5 billion will be spent by international tourists every day across the world, from US $2 billion in Europe to US $1.5 billion in Asia. This will mean more revenue spread across the world generated by the new tourists from today’s emerging economies.