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Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply: An application to Egypt

Author: MARGA PEETERS
Organisation: Royal Netherlands Academy for Arts and Sciences and Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study (NIAS)
Publish Date: 2011
Country: Egypt
Sector: Economic
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Employment
Type: Article
Language: English
Tags: Demography, Labour supply, Employment, Public sector employment, Public finance.

Due to its pyramid population structure, Egypt needs to create jobs at a high pace to absorb the many new entrants at its labour market. This article structurally models and quantifies the impact of these demographic shocks and the shedding of public sector jobs on unemployment. The findings indicate that Egypt needs to grow at 5% for many years to come. Job creation better occurs in the private than in the public sector. Egypt’s public sector has been driving up government expenditures disproportionably, not only because of the numerous public sector employees but also because of high public wage growth.
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