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Global Demographic Trends and their Implications for Employment

Author: David lam, Murray Leibrandt
Organisation: University of Michigan, University of Cape Town
Publish Date: May 2013
Country: Global
Sector: Economic
Method: Creative thinking
Theme: Employment
Type: Other publication
Language: English
Tags: Employment, Unemployment, Demographic trends, Population growth, Working-age population, Labor force growth, Age composition

We begin with an overview of the world’s dramatic demographic history of the last 60 years. Understanding the rapid changes in mortality and fertility, with resulting rapid changes in population growth rates and age structure, is important in understanding what will happen to the working-age population in the next few decades. We then discuss the growth and composition of the working-age population (age 15-64) for the world as a whole and for separate countries and regions. For the world as a whole the working-age population will continue to grow, increasing by 20% between 2010 and 2030. This is a slower rate of increase than in previous decades, however, with the growth rate continuing to fall in the coming decades. We discuss the rapid changes in age distribution that will be observed in all regions, with the older population growing faster than children and youth. The youth component of the working-age population (age 15-24) will increase by only 3% between 2010 and 2030, while the population aged 45-64 will increase by 42%.
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