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Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

Author: Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Timothy R. Carter, Kirsti Jylhä and Heikki Tuomenvirta
Organisation: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finnish Environment Institute
Publish Date: 2003
Country: Global
Sector: Environment
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Climate Change
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: climate change, greenhouse gases, aerosols, IPCC emissions

In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) released a new set of scenarios describing projected emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the global atmosphere during the 21st century. The estimates span a range of emissions arising from different assumptions of socio-economic and technological development up to 2100.

Changes in atmospheric composition caused by these emissions alter the radiative balance of the atmosphere and hence affect the global climate. Preliminary estimates of the implications of these scenarios for climate in 32 world regions were presented in a previous report (The Finnish Environment 433). Those estimates were extrapolated from existing climate model simulations that assumed earlier IPCC emissions scenarios.

This report presents an intercomparison of climate changes projected for the same 32 regions, but this time using new climate model results from simulations that are based directly on the latest IPCC emissions scenarios. Results are presented for seasonal temperature and precipitation changes between 1961–1990 and three time periods in the future centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.
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