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On the Forecast Accuracy of Sports Prediction Markets

Author: Stefan Luckner, Jan Schröder, and Christian Slamka
Organisation: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Publish Date: 2007
Country: Spain
Sector: Social Development
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Futures
Type: Article
Language: English
Tags: Prediction Markets, Forecast Accuracy, Sports Forecasting

Accurate forecasts are essential in many areas such as business and sports forecasting. Prediction markets are a promising approach for forecasting future events and are increasingly used to aggregate information on particular future events of interest such as elections, sports events, and Oscar winners. In this paper, we present the results of an empirical study that compares the forecast accuracy of a prediction market for the FIFA World Cup 2006 to predictions derived from the FIFA world ranking and to a random predictor. We find that prediction markets for the FIFA World Cup outperform predictions based on the FIFA world ranking as well as the random predictor in terms of forecast accuracy.
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