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Report on CCAFS Regional Scenarios Development for East Africa

Author: CCAFS Scenarios Team
Organisation: CCAFS Scenarios Team
Publish Date: December 2010
Country: East Africa
Sector: Development
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Futures
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: Regional Integration, Scenarios, East Africa

Climate change represents an immediate and unprecedented threat to the food security of hundreds of millions of people who depend on small-scale agriculture for their livelihoods. At the same time, agriculture and related activities also contribute to climate change, by intensifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and altering the land surface. Responses aimed at adapting to climate change may have negative consequences for food security, just as measures taken to increase food security may exacerbate climate change. This complex and dynamic relationship between climate change, agriculture and food security is also influenced by wider factors. Agricultural and food systems are heavily influenced by socio-economic conditions, which are affected by multiple processes, such as macro-level economic policies, political conflict, the spread of infectious diseases, etc.

Concerted action is urgently needed to address the complex and uncertain political and economic challenges of food security. A new research initiative is needed to inform this action – one that integrates and applies the best and most promising approaches, tools and technologies emerging from numerous disciplines. The involvement of farmers, policy-makers, researchers, donors and other stakeholder groups in the research process is key. Successful mitigation and adaptation will entail not only individual behavioural changes, but also changes in technology, institutions, agricultural systems and socio-economic systems. These changes cannot be achieved without improving interactions between scientists and decision-makers at all levels of society.

Scenario analysis conducted at the regional level is an innovative approach to systematically explore the technical, institutional and policy options that these different sets of stakeholders have at their disposal in tackling this complex set of concerns.
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