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Urban sustainability in developing countries’ megacities: modelling and predicting future urban growth in Lagos

Author: Jose´ I. Barredo and Luca Demicheli
Organisation: Cities, Vol. 20, No. 5, p. 297–310, 2003
Publish Date: 2003
Country: Nigeria
Sector: Development
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Sustainability
Type: Other publication
Tags: urban sustainability, dynamic spatial models, urban simulation, spatial metrics

In the first part of the paper urban sustainability issues in African countries are considered with a focus on urban growth. The need for urban management tools that are able to provide prospective scenarios is addressed. Urban simulations can represent a useful approach to an understanding of the consequences of current planning policies or their incompleteness. Simulations of future urban growth are usually quite difficult without tools that embrace the complexity of the urban system. The second part of this paper describes an urban growth simulation for the city of Lagos in Nigeria using a dynamic spatial model prototype. We propose a bottom-up approach, integrating land-use factors with a dynamic approach for modelling future urban land-use scenarios.
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