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Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios

Author: Monique Hoogwijk, Andre Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg
Organisation: Biomass and Bioenergy
Publish Date: 2005
Country: Africa
Sector: Agriculture
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Land Use
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: Global, Scenarios, Energy crops

The availability of the resources is an important factor for high shares of biomass to penetrate the electricity, heat or
liquid fuel markets. We have analysed the geographical and technical potential of energy crops for the years 2050–2100
for three land-use categories: abandoned agricultural land, low-productivity land and ‘rest land’, i.e. remaining noproductive
land. We envisaged development paths using four scenarios resulting from different future land-use patterns
that were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Special Report on Emission Scenarios:
A1, A2, B1 and B2. The geographical potential is defined as the product of the available area for energy crops and the
corresponding productivity level for energy crops. The geographical potential of abandoned agricultural land is the
largest contributor. For the year 2050 the geographical potential of abandoned land ranges from about 130 to
410 EJ yr1. For the year 2100 it ranges from 240 to 850 EJ yr1. The potential of low-productive land is negligible
compared to the other categories. The rest land area is assumed to be partly available, resulting in ranges of the
geographical potential from about 35 to 245 EJ yr1 for the year 2050 and from about 35 to 265 EJ yr1 in 2100. At a
regional level, significant potentials are found in the Former USSR, East Asia and South America. The geographical
potential can be converted to transportation fuels or electricity resulting in ranges of the technical potential for fuels in
the year 2050 and 2100 equal to several times the present oil consumption.
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