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Energy Shocks and Emerging Alternative Energy Technologies

Author: Graham M. Turner
Organisation: CSRIO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Publish Date: July 2010
Country: Global
Sector: Petroleum
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Energy
Type: Presentation
Language: English
Tags: Oil production, Oil supply, Energy shocks, Alternative energy, The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF), The Asia‐Pacific Stocks and Flows Framework (APSFF) Greenhouse gas emissions,GHG

Since the availability of cheap and suitable energy underpins in many ways both developed and developing economies, it is crucial that national economies are prepared for potential energy shocks. Shocks may arise from physical constraints, such as a peak in national and global production rate of oil, or from institutional constraints, such as economic incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We examine potential modelled scenarios for China and Australia, to explore the extent of such shocks. The models are based on stock and flow dynamics of the physical activity throughout national economies. The ‘what if’ scenarios allow us to analyse options that aim to reduce or eliminate the impact of energy shocks through the use of alternative energy technologies and other options. When considering these alternatives, it is necessary to incorporate in the analysis the rate of change required in any transition, and potential cross‐sectoral side‐effects.
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