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No foresight, no food? Regional scenarios for Africa and South Asia

Author: Joost Vervoort, Polly Ericksen
Organisation: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 4 International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
Publish Date: July 2012
Country: Global
Sector: Agriculture
Method: Foresight
Theme: Food
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: Sustainable food production, Future scenarios, Farming patterns, Land use, Climate change

What if governments, researchers, the private sector and civil society in East Africa take concerted action towards regional political and economic integration? What would be the impacts of this kind of future on food security for the region’s poor, who live under pressures of climate change? What new challenges would emerge? Could tensions arise from East Africa’s assertion of power? What about a future where political and economic fragmentation continues in East Africa and people in power only focus on gains for their own narrow interests? Would there be a backlash and public outcries for change? How will these futures affect adaptation to climate change in the region? Will natural environments bear the burden – either of development or exploitation – in both future scenarios? Most importantly – how would organizations and individuals in the region who aim to improve food security, environments and rural livelihoods navigate these futures?
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