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Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model

Author: Dirk Willenbockel
Organisation: Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK
Publish Date: June 2011
Country: Global
Sector: Agriculture
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Food
Type: Report
Tags: Food prices, Scenarios GLOBE model, Food security, Climate change impacts, International trade, Projections

This report is a contribution to the Oxfam report: ‘Growing a Better Future’. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. Over and above providing a global perspective, the research provides disaggregated results for a range of countries and country groups identified by Oxfam. The scenarios of interest to Oxfam include • Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities (rice, wheat and maize) in sub-Saharan Africa (disaggregated by region), Central America, North Africa, and other low-income countries and regions selected by Oxfam; on the domestic supply responses in these regions; on international trade in agricultural commodities; and on food consumption per capita. • Scenarios of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by crop and its consequences for food production and prices in sub-Saharan African regions and other developing countries; • Alternative scenarios in which national agricultural productivity rises above predicted trend levels; • For regions in sub-Saharan Africa, a scenario in which anticipated climate change impacts on yields are negated or reduced through adaptation and wider measures.
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