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Health Bibliozone

“There can be no real growth without healthy populations. No sustainable development without tackling disease and malnutrition. No international security without assisting crisis-ridden countries. And no hope for the spread of freedom, democracy and human dignity unless we treat health as a basic human right.”

Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland - Former director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the former prime minister of Norway



In February, Foresight For Development turns the spotlight on foresight and health.

Featured in Bibliozone this month is a collection of publications related to African & Global health foresight. The selection of documents is partial and based on accessible material. Therefore, we would like to invite everyone to supplement our library with additional materials.

The topics we focus on in this issue includes:

  • Emerging disease conditions
  • MDGs
  • Health and climate change

From our FFD library:

Here are the publications available in our library:



Foresight Health Report
This report attempts to address the science and technology challenges that would be faced in providing health care in South Africa from a medium- to long-term perspective.


Charting a preferred future for healthcare in South Africa
The objectives of this research report on a scenario planning exercise for the SA healthcare sector were to prepare the material that would feed into such an exercise, to document some ideas about how the planning workshops would run, and identify some possible role players in the process.


Human Resources for Health South Africa 2030
In May 2011, the Director General for Health Ms Malebona Matsoso, initiated a process to develop a Draft HR Strategy. The process involved gathering information from key informants, collecting and reviewing policy documents, research and reports on Human Resources for Health in South Africa. The aim of the process was to develop an HR Strategy which is based on evidence and reflects the views of role players and stakeholders.


Climate Change and Population Health: Possible Future Scenarios
"While the developed world emphasises the virtues of technology and sound socio-political systems in promoting future adaptation strategies to climate change, many countries in the developing world utilise grass-roots based social action. The use of a multi-faceted approach offers novel ways for dealing with future climate change scenarios and its potential impacts on human population health."


Future Scenarios for Health Service Delivery
Plenary presentation for the 12thAnnual Scientific Conference (ASCON): Health Systems Research: People’s Needs First10-12 February 2009, ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh


Health Systems for the Millennium Development Goals: Country Needs and Funding Gaps
The objective of this background document for the Taskforce on Innovative International Financing for Health Systems is forecasting the potential cost and impact of removing the constraints to reaching the health MDGs at the country level.


Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990–2020: Global Burden of Disease Study
“Plausible projections of future mortality and disability are a useful aid in decisions on priorities for health research, capital investment, and training. Rates and patterns of ill health are determined by factors such as socioeconomic development, educational attainment, technological developments, and their dispersion among populations, as well as exposure to hazards such as tobacco. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we developed three scenarios of future mortality and disability for different age-sex groups, causes, and regions.”



Scenarios: The Global HIV/AIDS Crisis
This publication looks at possible scenarios for the future of the AIDS epidemic and considers their impact on sufferers, societies and economies.


Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis
"We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality."


AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025
This book is about AIDS and Africa, and the world’s response to both, and presents three stories describing possible futures.


Africa 2060: Health & Development
Astier Almedom, director of the International Resilience Program at the Tufts University Institute for Global Leadership, Alfredo Burlando (GRS'10), a research fellow at the Pardee Center, and Melissa Graboyes (GRS'10), author of the Pardee Center publication The Future of Malaria in Africa, discuss current trends in African health and development. Among their topics are resilience during times of adversity and disaster, lack of infrastructure, and the ethics of conducting medical research in Africa.


Dr. Anthony Fauci, aids2031 International Advisory Group, Looking to the Future: The Epidemic in 2031 and New Directions in AIDS Research
At the XVII International AIDS Conference Special Session: Looking to the Future: The Epidemic in 2031 and New Directions in AIDS Research, Dr. Faucispoke about the future of AIDS research.


Achieving the Millennium Development Goals for Health: So far, progress is mixed—can we reach our targets?
Meeting the goals, or even substantial progress towards meeting them, would produce a healthier, more economically sound world. Some progress has been made, but it is lopsided – both regionally and within countries. Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind the rest of the developing world on most of the MDGs. Within developing countries in all regions, the well-off are improving their health at a faster rate than the poor. Interventions known to help meet the goals are not being used effectively, nor are health systems always capable of implementing them on the appropriate scale. What is the progress so far?


The Millennium Development Goals Report 2011
This annual report presents the most comprehensive global assessment of progress to date, based on data provided by a large number of international organizations within and outside the United Nations system. The aggregate figures in the report provide an overview of regional progress under the eight goals and are a convenient way to track advances over time.


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