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2025 Scenarios from The Challenge Network

The Challlenge Network: scenarios, strategy and foresight

These scenarios look forward to 2025. Economic growth will, on average, probably be slower than any enjoyed between the 1970s and the 2008 crisis. There are four depressing factors: first, of course, the current debt overhang, combined with state deficits. Second, there is an unavoidable, immense fiscal crisis looming in the 2020s, in the shape of demographic change and unfunded pensions. Third, supply side inflation will occur around minerals, energy and food whenever growth does manage to pick up. Finally, the need to meet environmental constraints will, whatever the positive rhetoric, cost around a percent off potential growth to compliant nations. Additional to these, the Eurozone situation has the potential to drag on for a decade, perennially threatening catastrophe.

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