Tags: Obesity risks, Arthritis, Stroke, Coronary heart disease, Ageing population, Disabilities

Using data from the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS) – a nationally representative sample of people aged 65 years and over – we have explored the effect of different health scenarios on the future numbers of older people with disability at a level that needs social care. From a review of four diseases – dementia, stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD) and arthritis – we have developed evidence-based scenarios for the health of the future older population.
Our results show that ageing of the population alone, with no alteration in the prevalence of diseases or the age-specific rates of becoming disabled or recovering, will result in a 67 per cent increase in the numbers with disability over the next 20 years. Numbers of the oldest old (those aged 85 years and over) with disability will have doubled and the numbers experiencing one of the key diseases considered will have increased by over 40 per cent by 2025.

Compression or expansion of disability.pdf