Tags: Health, Disease, Future trends, Obesity, Cost implications, Computer programs, Modelling, Micro-simulation

The UKHF micro-simulation is capable of dynamically modelling demographically specified populations of people, on an individual basis. Provided the necessary defining statistics exist the populations can be representative of whole countries (England and the U.S. are working examples); or geographical regions or simply collections of individuals. The populations can be stratified by any number of variables such as sex, class, ethnicity, income, family, geographical region, etc. Various features of the populations can be predicted into the future - until now the emphasis has been on predicting future health outcomes dependent on predicted body mass index (BMI) growth and tobacco consumption (i.e. the number of cigarettes smoked by an individual).

Modelling future health.pdf