Sub-Saharan Africa at a Crossroads: A Quantitative Analysis of Regional Development
Organisation: Boston University - The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future
Publish Date: May 2010
Country: Africa
Sector: Development
Method: Casual layered analysis
Theme: Futures
Type: Other publication
Language: English
Tags: Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Africa, Quantitative Analysis, Regional Development
Sub-Saharan Africa is at a crossroads of development. Despite a quarter of a century of economic reforms propagated by national policies and international financial agencies and institutions, sub-Saharan Africa is still lagging in development. In this paper, we adopt two techniques using both qualitative (e.g., governance) and quantitative factors (e.g., GDP) to examine regional patterns of development in sub-Saharan Africa. More specifically, we examine and analyze similarities and differences among the countries in this region using a multivariate statistical technique, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and an unsupervised neural network called Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to cluster levels of development. PCA serves as a tool for determining regional patterns while SOM is more useful for determining continental patterns in development. Both PCA and SOM results show a “developed” cluster in Southern Africa (South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Gabon). SOM exhibits a cluster of least developed countries in southern Western Africa and western Central Africa. The results demonstrate that the applied techniques are highly effective to compress multidimensional qualitative and quantitative data sets and to extract relevant information about development from a policy perspective. Our analysis indicates the significance of governance variables in some clusters while a combination of variables explains other regional clusters.
Located in: Resources