Tags: Oil supply shortages, Macroeconomic oil prices, Oil production decreases, GINFORS model, Global INTerindustry FORecasting System,OPEC, Russia

Presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are implemented in the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. Additionally, the scenarios incorporate different technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy, which cannot be forecast using econometric methods. GINFORS then endogenously determines world-wide energy demand and energy prices. In modelling terms this means that the oil price is increased until global oil demand equals global oil supply. The resulting oil price is by no means to be understood as the most likely oil price development. This exercise should rather be understood as an if-then-analysis in a research area that still needs extensive explorations. Given the assumption of a fixed medium term oil supply, the effects described in the following might be too strong.

Medium Term economic effects of peak oil today.pdf