Tags: Energy, Climate Change Mitigation, Integrated Assessment, Sustainable development

Analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of 25 climate change mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. We discuss the feasibility of 30 achieving, on time scales acceptable for developing countries, both decarbonization and the needed structural changes or efficiency improvements, concluding that the decreases in energy consumption implied in numerous mitigation scenarios are unlikely to be achieved without endangering sustainable development objectives, such as universal energy access. To underscore the importance of basic energy needs also in the future, the role of infrastructure is highlighted, exemplarily looking at steel and cement.

Development without energy.pdf