Tags: Forecasting, Diffusion processes, Inference method, Predictive validity, Meta-analytical innovation, Products

Deriving forecasts for innovative durable product categories prior to launch is a very difficult task. Except for product modifications or new bundles of known attributes, we cannot ask the potential user because he cannot imagine the future benefits of such an innovation. Therefore, companies depend on subjective judgment based on analo‐ gous products. In principle, this is possible because the diffusion of nearly all innova‐ tions follows an s‐shaped trend which can be modeled with the help of the Bass model. Very often, there is no direct analogue so that it may be advisable to combine several semi‐analogous products to a weighted average. Unfortunately, the coefficients of the Bass model depend on each other and cannot be combined independently.

Forecasting the Diffusion of an Innovation Prior to Launch.pdf