Tags: Informal Settlements, Urban development, Transport infrastructure, Dar es Salaam, Geographic Information system, GIS, Modelling

This study deals with the development of a computer-based simulation model to reproduce informal urban residential dynamics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. As a step towards a better understanding of the underlying processes the study aims to explore urban growth and to investigate the drivers of this development. Simultaneously, the model seeks to reproduce residential location decisions and the underlying mechanisms on an aggregate level in order to understand informal urban dynamics. It aims at forecasting future trends and demonstrating the likely impacts of selected planning measures. A particular focus of this study is to explore the potential of transport infrastructure to guide future informal residential development decisions.