Tags: Security, Scenario techniques, Complex systems, Security environment, Risk scenarios, Siegener approach

Doing the right things in a given situation at the right time is the underlying formula for the achievements of any strategic intention. It is hereby not only the evolutionary success story of humankind but also the outcome of our cognitive capabilities to consider alternative options. Superjacent stands the visionary view into the future and the timely identification of relevant developments. One the one hand, special future scenarios can be derived: Scenarios that describe thinkable future (security) environments with developments for which it is necessary to be prepared for. On the other hand, strategy scenarios can be derived that constitute future options for action. The paper will present an exemplary synopsis of the findings derived from the varied applications of the scenario technique and the application of future foresight in the context of future environments. Especially the possibility to account for mostly any constraints within the scenario development process will be depicted. By doing so, sensitivity analysis as regards the robustness of the developed scenarios can also be performed.

Development and assessment of Future Scenarios in the Context of the Security environment.doc