Tags: Security, Global security risks, Geopolitical challenges, Science and technology trends, Regional trends, Legal trends

This paper makes no pretence to predict the future with certainty (an impossibility), but rather seeks to provide an informed estimate of the future security environment. The paper will only identify trends, and where possible, their drivers, leaving defence planners and others to formulate assumptions and propose solutions for NATO. The sources used include a number of national papers on similar subjects, along with open-source research conducted at HQ SACT. Readers are bound to have varying views of the future security environment, to some degree, but they are encouraged to see the trends as food for thought, and as a basis for some general conclusions rather than as judgements or absolute predictions. Though some trends, such as global trade and development of alternative energy and fuel sources, if used astutely, could create a force for stability and prosperity, but this paper concentrates on inherent dangers, risks or threats. Being a security organisation, NATO must focus on those trends that could lead to an unstable environment or become a risk to the security of Alliance members or their partners. It is not the intention of this paper to just describe a negative future, but to highlight those aspects that could threaten stability, in order to develop possible courses of actions to address.

FutureSecurityEnvironment.pdf