Tags: Mining industry, Platinum group metals, PGM, Jewellery, Autocatalysts, Technology, Economics, Demands, Chinese demands, Indian demands

Examines the effect of several technological, legislative and economic scenarios on the future demand for platinum, especially in the autocatalyst sector. SFA Oxford has constructed a number of scenarios to model the impact of a wide range of influences on the demand for platinum out to 2016. The central case is our most likely outcome for the market, built on supply/demand fundamentals, producer economics for mine closure and project inducement. Given the importance of crude oil prices in terms of influencing global growth, our optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are based on a range of crude oil prices, and their resultant effects on GDP. Next, we consider the effect on platinum demand of the roll-out of ever more stringent automotive emissions legislation. This covers the main vehicle classes in each region of the world. Our new technologies scenario examines the effects on platinum demand, which are expected to occur with the staggered introduction of new automotive technologies—including cleaner diesel, diesel-hybrids and fuel cells—designed to improve vehicle fuel efficiency and minimize environmental damage.

Future shifts in PGM demand—the impact of technological and economic scenarios on future metal demand.pdf