Tags: Security, Future, Assessments, Predictions, Military technology, Divergence, Consensus scenario

Three distinct methodologies are currently in favor for use in assessing the future security environment. Estimates utilize an assessment of current conditions to identify possible future events. The priority is accuracy, which requires a relatively short time horizon. Forecasts represent longer-range assessments, primarily relying on trends-based analysis. Most forecasts are issue-specific. Scenarios can be thought of as a range of forecasts, which tend to be richly developed depictions of alternate worlds based on plausible changes in current trends. The strengths and weaknesses of the three primary methodologies for futures assessment have implications for policy recommendations. But the most important is the understanding that any attempt at deriving a consensus view requires the mixing of methodologies that were not necessarily designed to be compatible.

Future Security Environment - presentation.pdf