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World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision

Author: Nikos Alexandratos, Jelle Bruinsma
Organisation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ESA Working paper No. 12-03
Publish Date: June 2012
Country: Global
Sector: Agriculture
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Food
Type: Report
Tags: Agricultural outlook, Food demand, Production growth, Nutrition, Crop production, Global outlook, Land use, Irrigation demand, Crop yields

This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) anew base year of 2005/07 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/01); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections.
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